The US consumer is a complex and resourceful animal; we appear to have a need to be satisfied that transcends even the most difficult times. Consider how we reacted to the Great Depression: at a time of extraordinary financial turmoil, most in the nation turned inwards towards family and culture, making the era one of the most memorable for American arts and crafts. The entire ‘craftsman’ style and ‘arts and crafts’ movement came out of the depression, and though few were able to afford luxury purchases or finely crafted products for their homes, we saw a surge in artistry and craftsmanship that would come from the home. American households, under extraordinary fiscal pressure, continued to crave warmth, values, family, and entertainment.
As our society surfaced from World War I and then came through the prosperous 1920’s, personal values declined steadily and styles trended towards the complex, though relatively cool lines of the ‘art deco’ movement. However, as the nation plunged headlong into financial turmoil of the 1930’s, and finally another world war in the 1940’s, hearts and minds turned towards home, family, and warmth. Many of us remember the 1940’s and 1950’s as a simpler, more wholesome time for home and family, but few stop to realize that it became that way after an entire movement swung the pendulum back to a place of personal satisfaction, a time in which the home became the center of our lives again, while we created memories around the fireplace, the radio, and the kitchen table.
This same sort of transition took place after the conflict in Vietnam. The 1960’s and 1970’s were punctuated by societal, financial, and political unrest. But by the late 1970’s and early 1980’s we were once again seeking hearth and home. We eschewed the establishment, and welcomed national leadership in the warmth and genuine tones of Jimmy Carter and the values oriented confidence offered by Ronald Reagan. Home designs once again trended towards warmth and away from sleek and modern. Toll painting, quilting, wood working, gardening and scrap booking became national pastimes once more. But in the years since, we’ve morphed back to a point where high tech has replaced high touch, and an economy that has rewarded complex promises more readily than sound advice. The societal pendulum swings with amazing consistency, you just need to look at thirty and fifty year time frames to see it with any clarity.
While our nation adjusts to the current challenges facing our economy, consumers will once again put more of themselves into gift giving, home decor, and creative efforts. We tend to want to get as much out of our purchases as before, but with fewer dollars to put towards them, we begin to invest more of our own effort in an attempt to create a higher level of quality or a greater affect. At the end of the day, it’s all about feeling good, and the US consumer will transition towards ways to drive personal and family pleasure without having to spend as much as they have might have before.
I recently visited in the home of an affluent client whom I knew to be in the process of remodeling their kitchen and family room. Their original plans included interior decorators, expensive wall treatments, commercial appliances, and high end furnishings, so I wasn’t at all surprised to find rooms that had been transformed into warm, comfortable, and attractive spaces. As we talked about the decorating process and I looked more closely at the level of finish, I was interested to note that the artwork was all about older family photographs instead of the prints and oil paintings I had expected to find. The planned for, costly wall treatments and window fabrics had given way to warm colors accented by home made draperies and personally applied, vinyl wall lettering, quotes and sayings that reinforced the values of home and family. The finished rooms were as tasteful, attractive, and inviting as anyone might have wished for, but instead of simply being the product of an expensive group of technicians, the space was a reflection of a family that had economized, sacrificed, and made it their own.
This is the stuff of which the American consumer is made. We continued to demand quality and comfort, and when need be, we’re willing to exert the time and effort to offer it to ourselves for ourselves, rather than go without. As we create and innovate, we find more satisfaction in our own efforts than we might otherwise have found by having spent more and benefited less. When we haven’t as much money to spend we invest more of ourselves to achieve a similar affect.
As our society transforms itself from a nation of net spenders back towards an economy reflective of meaningful personal investment, consumers will face choices that will motivate them to do more with less. Less glamour and more comfort, fewer excesses and greater warmth; personal, emotional and heart felt will replace expensive and cutting edge. In recent years we’ve seen personal savings levels fall to negative numbers in the minus 2% to 3% range. Almost overnight that trend is reversing and will likely settle in at a personal savings rate somewhere between 4% and 8%. The contraction of household incomes as unemployment rises above the 6% level is likely to make the transition more painful, and as consumers feel the pain they’ll look for simple pleasures.
Once the transition has been made it will take several years before a noticeable shift begins back towards excesses and less personal trends. In the mean time, cottage businesses reflective of our evolving national ethos are most likely to prosper. As they do so, we’ll see that the innovation and resourcefulness of the consumer will have found a way to bring the economy back to the robust growth trends of the 1950’s and 1990’s.
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